Despite growing interest in the climate response post net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, projected regional changes after net-zero remain highly uncertain. The climate system response to zero emissions depends on a number of factors: the time since net-zero, the total of cumulative emissions up to the point of net-zero emissions (or equivalently, the global warming level), and, importantly, the Earth System Model being analysed.
Here, I'll present storylines of global and regional climate evolution after net-zero CO2 emissions from two state-of-the-art Earth System Models across a wide range of stabilised global warming levels: UKESM1.2 and CNRM-ESM2-1. The two ESMs follow the TIPMIP protocol, which requests that models prescribe CO2 emissions consistent with a warming of 0.2 °C/decade during the ramp-up phase. When the global warming level of interest is reached, CO2 emissions are set to zero and the model is run forwards for at least 300 years. Regional temperature, precipitation, and large-scale circulation metrics are compared for the 1.5, 2 and 4 and 5°C zero emission simulations across the two ESMs. The presentation will highlight where the two models show common responses and where they do not, and how this agreement (or lack thereof) depends on the global warming level.
Venue
Seminar rooms
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